Were you ever about to do an activity that was potentially risky and thought: “Hmm, I wonder what the chances are that I die from this?” Now you can know the answer!
A micromort is a unit that represents a probability of death.
From Wikipedia:
“A micromort (from micro- and mortality) is a unit of risk defined as one-in-a-million chance of death Micromorts can be used to measure riskiness of various day-to-day activities. A microprobability is a one-in-a million chance of some event; thus a micromort is the microprobability of death. The micromort concept was introduced by Ronald A. Howard who pioneered the modern practice of decision analysis.”
<aside> 💡 Put in some other terms: 1 micromort = 1/100 of a basis point chance of death.
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From this, we can find micromort values of different activities to compare their relative risk.
BASE jumping is 430 micromorts per jump
A day on the slopes is 0.7 micromorts
We can also add the total micromorts of separate events together to get an estimation¹ of our chance of death over a certain period (see Figure 1.1).
If i ski 5 times a year, my micromort exposure is:
0.7*5 = 3.5 micromorts per year = 3.5/365 days = 0.01 micromorts per day
Or really, it’s our excess chance of death since there is a baseline micromort exposure rate for everyone that differs by age.
From Statista, I’ve adjusted the annual death rates to find the daily micromort exposure:
Age Group | Male | Female |
---|---|---|
All ages* | 24.97808219 | 22.71232877 |
Under 1 year** | 16.52876712 | 13.70958904 |
1-4 | 0.6931506849 | 0.5808219178 |
5-14 | 0.4164383562 | 0.3150684932 |
15-24 | 2.731506849 | 1.052054795 |
25-34 | 4.849315068 | 2.161643836 |
35-44 | 7.04109589 | 3.879452055 |
45-54 | 13.42465753 | 8.145205479 |
55-64 | 30.4630137 | 18.35068493 |
65-74 | 59.68767123 | 38.4109589 |
75-84 | 139.0164384 | 101.6684932 |
85 and over | 389.8520548 | 347.0164384 |